Affichage des archives de dimanche, 11 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 254 publié à 2200Z le 11 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1283 (N14W87) produced
a long duration C6/Sf flare at 11/0851Z. Region 1283 currently is
rotating around the west limb as a Dso spot group with a Beta-Gamma
magnetic classification. Region 1289 (N22E12), a Dko-Beta spot
group with 430 millionths in area, exhibited decay in its smaller
trailing spots. New Region 1292 (N08E66) was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with further M-class flares likely on 12 September as
Region 1283 continues to rotate around the west limb. On 12 - 14
September, solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a
slight chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. Minor
storm levels were observed during the period 10/2100 - 2400Z.
Activity was likely due to continued CME effects followed by a
coronal hole high speed stream. At approximately 10/1401Z, a slight
increase in density, wind speed, and temperature was seen in the ACE
solar wind monitor. Solar wind speed continued to increase to
approximately 660 km/s while density dropped to around 1 p/cc during
the period. This was most likely the start of the transition into
the coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with minor storm periods possible
on days 1 and 2 (12-13 September) due to continued coronal hole
influence and a possible glancing blow from the 10 September CME.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 3 (14
September).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Sep au 14 Sep
| Classe M | 55% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 Sep 121 Prévisionnel 12 Sep-14 Sep 120/115/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 Sep 100
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 Sep 020/033 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 Sep 010/018 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 010/012-010/012-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Sep au 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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