Affichage des archives de vendredi, 9 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 252 publié à 2200Z le 09 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 1283 (N17W55)
produced two M-class flares. The first was an M2/1n at 09/0611Z with
an associated Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 717 km/sec)
and a non-geoeffective CME. The second was an M1/1f at 09/1249Z.
Region 1283 showed penumbral and trailer spot decay. Region 1289
(N22E37) developed a trailer spot with penumbra. New Region 1290
(S15E29) was numbered during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (10 - 12 September) with a slight chance
for another X-class flare from Region 1283.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity began the period at quiet levels then
increased to active to major storm levels after 09/1245Z. An
isolated severe storm period was observed from 09/1500 - 1800Z. Two
sudden impulses (SI) were observed at 09/1243Z and 09/1250Z (16nT
and 28nT respectively, as measured by the Boulder USGS
magnetometer). At 09/1150Z, ACE data indicated an interplanetary
shock arrival preceding the Boulder SIs. Bt reached up to 25nT, Bz
dropped to -23nT, density spiked up to 35p/cc, wind speeds peaked at
602km/s, and temperature increased. Activity was due to combined
CMEs associated with 06 - 07 September major flare activity. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active on day 1 (10 September) due to continuing CME
effects. Activity is expected to decrease on day 2 (11 September) to
unsettled levels with a chance for active periods as CME effects
subside, but a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS)
will become geoeffective. Day 3 (12 September) unsettled activity is
expected to continue under the effects of the CH HSS. There will be
a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Sep au 12 Sep
| Classe M | 70% | 65% | 60% |
| Classe X | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Sep 112 Prévisionnel 10 Sep-12 Sep 110/110/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Sep 099
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Sep 002/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Sep 018/035 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 020/022-012/015-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Sep au 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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