Affichage des archives de samedi, 3 septembre 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Sep 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 246 publié à 2200Z le 03 Sep 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to several C-class
events observed during the period. As it approached the west limb,
Region 1280 (N12W78) produced three C-class flares, the largest a
C2/Sf at 03/1736Z. Region 1281 (S19W10) produced a C2/Sf at
03/0756Z. Region 1282 (N23W52) indicated decay in its intermediate
spots, but developed a delta magnetic structure in the large leader
spot. Two new regions were numbered during the period. New Region
1286 (N20W57) rapidly emerged as an eight spot D-type group and
produced a C1 x-ray event at 03/1846Z. New Region 1287 (S30E64)
rotated onto the disk as a three spot C-type group. All remaining
regions were quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected
during the period.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (04 - 06 September) with a slight chance for
M-class activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an
isolated active period observed at Boulder between 03/0900Z - 1200Z.
At about 03/0100Z, observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an
increase in temperature, density and wind speed. These increases,
coupled with a brief period of southward Bz to -12nT and an increase
in Bt to 13nT, were indicative of a co-rotating interaction region
in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream. During the period,
wind speed increased from about 275 km/s to near 425 km/s while Bz
generally fluctuated between +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for
isolated active periods, on day one (04 September) as the coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) persists. Days two and three (05 -
06 September) will see a return to mostly quiet levels as the CH HSS
moves out of a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 Sep au 06 Sep
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 Sep 119 Prévisionnel 04 Sep-06 Sep 120/120/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 Sep 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 02 Sep 001/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/011 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 Sep au 06 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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