Affichage des archives de mercredi, 3 août 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Aug 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 215 publié à 2200Z le 03 Aug 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N16W37) produced
the largest event of the period, an M6/2B flare at 03/1348Z. It was
accompanied by a 10cm radio burst (180 sfu), Type II (812 km/s) and
IV emissions. A CME was subsequently observed in STEREO-A COR2
imagery at 03/1409Z. Time-height extrapolation from LASCO C3
imagery indicated a speed of 624 km/s. Region 1263 (N17W06) also
produced an M1/1F flare at 03/0432Z. Both regions were classified
as Dki type spot groups with beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta
magnetic characteristics respectively. A weak CME was also observed
in STEREO-A COR2 imagery at approximately 03/0109Z but was not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is likely to remain
moderate to high for the next three days (04-06 Aug) under the
continued threat of a major event. Regions 1261 and 1263 are most
likely to produce activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. Wind speeds at the
ACE spacecraft were near 360 km/s and Bz was near zero. A slight
enhancement in 10 MeV protons was observed at both ACE and the
GOES-13 satellite, but remained below alert thresholds.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (04 Aug), becoming active on
days 2 and 3 (05-06 Aug), with a slight chance of minor to major
storms at high latitudes. The increased geomagnetic activity is
associated with the arrivals of CMEs from 02 and 03 August. The 10
MeV protons are likely to exceed the 10 pfu threshold with CME
passage.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 Aug au 06 Aug
| Classe M | 65% | 65% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 55% | 55% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 Aug 120 Prévisionnel 04 Aug-06 Aug 120/120/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 Aug 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 02 Aug 003/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 03 Aug 003/003 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 005/005-020/025-018/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 Aug au 06 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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