Affichage des archives de dimanche, 10 juillet 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Jul 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 191 publié à 2200Z le 10 Jul 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W15) grew in sunspot count and magnetic
complexity but has remained stable and quiet. Region 1250 (S25E48)
emerged on the disk early in the period and has grown rapidly to the
second largest group on the visible disk. Two CMEs were observed
during the period but after careful analysis, both CMEs were
determined to be backsided and non-geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next
three days (11-13 July) as both Region 1247 and 1250 continue to
grow and evolve.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past
24 hours. The elevated levels are due to the continued effects of a
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds, as
measured by the ACE spacecraft, peaked at around 540 km/s but has
since started to decay to around 450 km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled for day one (11 July) as the
effects of the CH HSS wane. On day two (12 July), levels ranging
from quiet to active are expected due to the combined effects from
another CH HSS and the CME observed on 09 July. A return to quiet to
unsettled levels is expected on day three (13 July) as effects from
both events wane.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Jul au 13 Jul
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 Jul 091 Prévisionnel 11 Jul-13 Jul 092/094/094 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 Jul 099
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 09 Jul 010/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 10 Jul 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 007/007-012/012-007/007
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Jul au 13 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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