Affichage des archives de mercredi, 8 juin 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Jun 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 159 publié à 2200Z le 08 Jun 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1226 (S20W81) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1226
continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb and was
classified as a 1-spot Axx type. The remaining numbered regions were
inactive. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 - 11 June).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to
minor storm levels occurred during 07/2100 - 08/0600Z, associated
with elevated solar wind speeds combined with increased IMF Bt and
periods of southward IMF Bz. Mostly quiet conditions occurred after
08/0600Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
07/0820Z reached a maximum of 73 pfu at 07/1820Z and ended at
08/1710Z. The greater than 100 MeV event that began at 07/0735Z
reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 07/1025Z and ended at 08/0210Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (09 June) due to
the arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 07
June. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day 2 (10 June)
with a chance for minor to major storm levels as CME effects
persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (11 June) with a chance for active levels as CME
effects subside. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit on days 1 - 2 (09 - 10 June) due to
the arrival of the CME mentioned above.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Jun au 11 Jun
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Jun 090 Prévisionnel 09 Jun-11 Jun 088/088/088 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Jun 105
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Jun 011/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 012/020-018/025-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Jun au 11 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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