Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 mai 2011

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 May 28 0225 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF numéro 147 publié à 2200Z le 27 May 2011

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. New Region 1226 (S18E74) produced a B-class event and four C-class events since being numbered today. The largest was a C5 observed at 27/1643Z. This region began with a B1 event at 26/1654Z as it approached the southeast limb yesterday. It is currently an H-type group, however, the region is still rotating onto the disk and more white light area are evident in the SDO/HMI imagery just visible on the limb. Region 1223 (S16W00) produced the only other event during the period, a B4 at 27/0953Z. This region is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and grew slightly in sunspot count. Two more regions were numbered today as Regions 1224 (N21W15) and 1225 (N18E55). Region 1224 is a Dso group with a beta magnetic classification and 1225 is another H-type group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for C-class events, and a slight chance for an M-class event, as regions on the disk continue to evolve.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft suggest the earth is under the continued influence of the co-rotating interaction region in advance of the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Solar winds have slowly increased from around 390 to 500 km/s. The IMF Bt averaged around 8 nT with the Bz mostly southward (-8 nT) through the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled with occasional active periods, including isolated minor storm conditions at high-latitudes for day one (28 May). This is expected due to effects from the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). In addition there are possible effects from the disappearing filament observed on 25 May. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for days two and three (29-30 May) with continued CH HSS effects.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 May au 30 May
Classe M10%10%10%
Classe X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       27 May 090
  Prévisionnel   28 May-30 May  090/095/095
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        27 May 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 26 May  004/007
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 27 May  010/012
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  015/018-010/012-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 May au 30 May
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif25%20%15%
Tempête mineure10%05%05%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif35%30%20%
Tempête mineure15%10%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%

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