Affichage des archives de dimanche, 27 mars 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 086 publié à 2200Z le 27 Mar 2011
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 1176 (S15E02) produced a
C3/Sf at 27/0014Z with discrete radio emissions. Associated with
this event was a CME, first observed in LASCO C2 and C3 imagery at
27/0200Z and 27/0242Z respectively. The CME appeared as a narrow
band extending east, as viewed in LASCO, and had an estimated
plane-of-sky velocity of 630 km/s. SDO/AIA 193 imagery indicated
material movement in a wide band extending north through east with
stronger movement in an easterly direction. Region 1176 showed
little change during the period. At 27/0511Z, Type II (estimated
shock velocity of 651 km/s) and Type IV radio signatures were
observed. GOES13 and 15 were in eclipse phase, so GOES XRS data was
not available. At 27/0512Z, limited GOES-15 SXI data indicated
surging and material movement off the NE limb in the vicinity of new
Region 1183 (N15E62). LASCO C2 (27/0536Z) and C3 (27/0606Z) imagery
detected an asymmetric, partial-halo CME lifting off the NE limb
with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 880 km/s. New Region 1183
rotated on as a large, 8-spot E-type group with beta-gamma magnetic
characteristics. New Region 1182 (N13E01) evolved on the disk as a
single spot unipolar group. The remaining groups were quiet and
stable during the period. At this time, neither CMEs observed on 27
March appeared to have an Earth-directed component. The Penticton
10.7 cm flux and 90 day mean are estimated due to non-receipt of 27
Marchs flux reading.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (28-30 March). A chance for M-class
activity exists on day one (28 March) becoming likely on days two
and three (29 - 30 March) with a slight chance for X-class activity
on 29 - 30 March. This expected increase in activity is due to the
complex nature of Regions 1176 and 1183 plus the return of old
Regions 1166 (N10, L=110) on 28 March and 1169 (N17, L=078) on 30
March. On their last transit across the disk, these regions produced
a total of six M-class events and one X-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind velocities were low,
varying between 300 to 370 Km/s, while the Bz component of the IMF
was generally north through a majority of the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
periods, on day one (28 March) due to possible effects from the 24
March CME. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day two (29
March). By day three (30 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with
isolated active periods, are expected due to the arrival of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 Mar au 30 Mar
Classe M | 50% | 60% | 70% |
Classe X | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 Mar 117
Prévisionnel 28 Mar-30 Mar 125/125/130
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 Mar 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 26 Mar 001/001
Estimé Afr/Ap 27 Mar 001/001
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 Mar au 30 Mar
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 20% | 10% | 20% |
Tempête mineure | 05% | 01% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 25% | 15% | 25% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 01% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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