Affichage des archives de mardi, 8 mars 2011

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 067 publié à 2200Z le 08 Mar 2011

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 1170 (S26W68) and Region 1171 (S19E69). Region 1171 is a spotless plage region which produced an M1 event at 08/0358Z with a non-earth directed CME off the east limb, and an associated Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Region 1165 (S18W92) produced an M5/1f flare at 08/1044Z. This region, along with Regions 1164 (N23W71) and 1166 (N11W01) continue to maintain their Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The SOHO/LASCO and STEREO imagery have observed several CMEs over the past 24 hours from Regions 1164 and 1165. After further analysis from yesterday, there was an associated fast halo CME correlated with the M3 event at 07/2012Z which was determined to be earth directed. Region 1165 has an M1 event in progress at this report time which started at 08/1946Z. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90 day mean are estimated for today (08 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high for 09 March. Activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class events for 10-11 March.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The M3 event at 07/2012Z mentioned in Part IA produced a proton event at the greater than 10 Mev flux at geosynchronous orbit which is still in progress. Protons crossed event threshold at 08/0120Z and so far have reached a peak flux of 50 pfu at 08/0800Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions with isolated periods of minor storm levels for days one and two (09-10 March). The increase in activity is expected due to the effects from the CME associated with the M3 event observed on 07/2012Z. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day three (11 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for most of days one and two (09-10 March).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Mar au 11 Mar
Classe M75%50%40%
Classe X10%05%05%
Proton99%75%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       08 Mar 155
  Prévisionnel   09 Mar-11 Mar  150/145/145
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        08 Mar 091
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/010
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  005/008
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  020/025-020/022-008/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Mar au 11 Mar
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif30%30%25%
Tempête mineure20%20%05%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif40%35%35%
Tempête mineure25%25%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%05%

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