Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 mars 2011
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2011 Mar 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 063 publié à 2200Z le 04 Mar 2011IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
were observed from Region 1164 (N23W14). This region was classified
as an Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic
characteristics. Region 1166 (N09E55) more than tripled in size
over the past 24 hours and the number of spots doubled. Region 1166
was classified as an Eac type spot group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. Region 1168 (N24W73) emerged on the disk as a
small bipolar group. Two East limb CMEs were observed in both SOHO
LASCO and STEREO imagery, although neither appeared to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
More C-class flares are expected from Regions 1164 and 1166, with a
chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A waning coronal hole
high speed stream remained geoeffective and solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was approximately 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout
the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days
(05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day
two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March.
This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major
storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated
to decrease on day three (07 March).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Mar au 07 Mar
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Mar 127 Prévisionnel 05 Mar-07 Mar 125/125/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Mar 089
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Mar 011/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Mar 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar 010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Mar au 07 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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