Affichage des archives de dimanche, 12 décembre 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Dec 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 346 publié à 2200Z le 12 Dec 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was very low. A filament eruption
occurred in the southwest quadrant and was first observed in
STEREO-A imagery at about 12/0330Z. Coincident with the eruption was
a long duration B4 x-ray event that peaked at 12/0628Z. During the
past 24 hours, three separate CMEs were observed in LASCO C2
imagery. The first was observed departing the southwest limb at
12/0412Z. Subsequent CMEs were observed departing from the northeast
limb at 12/0524Z and from the southeast limb at 12/0612Z. The
remainder of the disk and limb was largely unchanged.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class event from Region 1131
(N31W58), for the next 3 days (13-15 December).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. At approximately
12/1500Z, the field became unsettled to active in response to the
arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods,
for Day 1 (13 December). A return to mostly quiet conditions is
expected for Days 2 and 3 (14-15 December) as the coronal hole high
speed stream departs. At this time, the three CMEs observed in the
past 24 hours are not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Dec au 15 Dec
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Dec 089 Prévisionnel 13 Dec-15 Dec 090/090/088 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Dec 083
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Dec 001/001 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Dec 005/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec 007/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Dec au 15 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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