Affichage des archives de jeudi, 6 mai 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 May 06 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 126 publié à 2200Z le 06 May 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. A single
low-level B-class flare occurred during the period. Region 1069
(N42W51) showed a decrease in area, but maintained a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. An eruptive prominence and associated CME
(estimated velocity 507 km/sec) occurred near the southwest limb
very early in the period. The CME did not appear to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 2 (07 - 08 May) with a chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 1069. Activity is expected to decrease to
very low levels on day 3 (09 May) as Region 1069 crosses the west
limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. However,
a brief period of active levels was detected at Boulder around
06/0800Z. ACE solar wind measurements indicated Earth remained
within a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities
varied from 491 - 584 km/sec during the period. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the summary period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 3 (07 -
09 May). There is also a chance for active levels during days 2 - 3
(08 - 09 May) in response to recent CME activity.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 May au 09 May
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 May 079 Prévisionnel 07 May-09 May 078/076/075 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 May 082
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 May 006/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 May 007/009 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/009-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 May au 09 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC
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