Affichage des archives de mardi, 4 mai 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 May 04 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 124 publié à 2200Z le 04 May 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. Todays activity consisted of
one C-class flare, a C3/Sf at 1629Z, as well as a few low-level
B-class flares. The C-flare was produced by newly numbered Region
1069 (N42W27) which emerged during the past 24 hours and became the
primary activity center on the disk. A weak wave/dimming event near
S29W00 was observed in SOHO EIT images at about 0700Z and was
associated with a faint CME.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional isolated C-class flares are likely if the current growth
trend in 1069 continues.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled with some isolated
active periods as well as some isolated storm level activity at high
latitudes. Solar wind data from ACE indicate the continuation of a
high speed solar wind stream, although the speeds were generally
decreasing with values around 600 km/s at the end of the analysis
interval. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period
for the first day (05 May) due to persistence. Activity levels are
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (06 May) and
mostly quiet for the third day (07 May).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 May au 07 May
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 May 082 Prévisionnel 05 May-07 May 084/086/086 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 May 082
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 May 019/027 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 May 010/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 010/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 May au 07 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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