Affichage des archives de jeudi, 11 mars 2010
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2010 Mar 11 2201 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 070 publié à 2200Z le 11 Mar 2010IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of a few, low-level B-class events. The largest of these was a B4/Sf
at 2039Z from Region 1054 (N15E43). This region showed steady growth
throughout the day and is classified as a D type group. The total
sunspot area increased to about 160 millionths near the end of the
period. New Region 1055 (S23W15) also continued to emerge slowly and
is currently a C-type group with about 30 millionths in area.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1054 or 1055.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid latitudes and was
mostly unsettled to active at high latitudes. However, there were
some isolated storm intervals at high latitudes between 0000-1200Z.
Solar wind observations from ACE showed elevated velocities around
460-500 km/s with low density (1-3 p/cc). The signatures are
consistent with a weak high speed stream, presumably from the
southward extension of the northern polar coronal hole.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (12-13 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled is possible on the third day (14
March) due to effects from a recurrent solar sector boundary.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Mar au 14 Mar
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 Mar 084 Prévisionnel 12 Mar-14 Mar 085/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 Mar 082
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 Mar 008/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Mar au 14 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 10% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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