Affichage des archives de samedi, 23 septembre 2006
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2006 Sep 23 2204 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 266 publié à 2200Z le 23 Sep 2006IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity was low with one C-class flare produced
by Region 910 (S10W18). Seeing conditions at all optical sites have
ranged from poor to non-existent so there is some disagreement in
the magnetic classification of this region, however, a
classification of Beta seems most likely. The San Vito optical
site reported a Type II radio sweep from 23/1106Z - 23/1114Z with an
estimated shock speed of 711 km/s. No current imagery is available
to aid in determining the possibility that a CME may be associated
with this radio event or in identifying the location of this event.
Within an hour of the radio sweep GOES 11 experienced an enhancement
of >1 MeV proton flux which peaked at 1800Z and is now decreasing.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There remains a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region
910.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet with one unsettled period. Activity
is due to both the occurrence of a solar sector boundary crossing
and the beginning of a coronal hole high speed stream now rotating
into a geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
was at high levels again today, however, at approximately 1930Z flux
decreased to below the threshold level for the first time in several
days.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with some isolated
minor storm periods. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Sep au 26 Sep
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Sep 070 Prévisionnel 24 Sep-26 Sep 075/075/075 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Sep 076
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Sep 001/003 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 010/020-006/008-008/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Sep au 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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