Affichage des archives de vendredi, 9 septembre 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Sep 10 0521 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 252 publié à 2200Z le 09 Sep 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity increased to very high levels. Region
808 (S09E54) continues to be very active and produced five major
flares today. Major flare activity is listed in chronological
order: an X5/2b event at 08/2106Z, an X1 at 09/0300Z, an M6/1f at
09/0548Z, an X3 at 09/0959Z, and a long duration X6/2b at 09/2004Z
which had associated Type IV and Type II (estimated shock velocity
of 959 km/sec) radio sweeps. Region 808 is an extremely complex
and compact spot group exceeding 1400 millionths of white light
area. Magnetic analysis clearly depicts a very strong
beta-gamma-delta configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
high to very high levels. Region 808 will continue to produce major
flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels today.
The CME associated with the X17 event on 07 September was observed
at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 09/1315Z. This was followed
by a 30 nT sudden impulse at the Boulder magnetometer at 09/1359Z.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 08/0215Z was
further enhanced today. The current peak flux is 465 pfu which
occurred at 09/2000Z. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that
began at 08/0405Z was also further enhanced today and was just under
8 pfu at 09/1920Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Isolated
minor storm conditions are expected on 10 September due to ongoing
transient flow. CME activity associated with today's flares is
expected to become geoeffective on 11 September and produce active
to minor storm levels with isolated major storm periods possible.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is
expected to continue through the next three days. The greater
than 100 MeV proton event now in progress is expected to continue
through 11 September. Today's X6/2b flare may enhance the existing
proton events.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Sep au 12 Sep
| Classe M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Classe X | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Sep 099 Prévisionnel 10 Sep-12 Sep 100/100/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Sep 091
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Sep 012/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 015/020-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Sep au 12 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 20% | 15% |
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