Affichage des archives de mercredi, 31 août 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Aug 31 2204 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 243 publié à 2200Z le 31 Aug 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 803 (N11W13)
produced a long duration C2 x-ray event that occurred at 31/1151Z.
This event was followed by a full halo CME that was first observed
at 31/1100Z by LASCO imagery. Region 803 continues to show decay
and is down to 20 millionths of sunspot area. Region 806 (S17E23)
was limited to B-class flare activity and has shown slight decay in
sunspot coverage. The magnetic gamma structure remains intact
although it has weakened since yesterday. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 30-2100Z au 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The
elevated conditions ensued following a sustained southward Bz
(ranging between -10 and -20 nT) which began just after 31/1000Z.
This activity is believed to be in response to a corotating
interaction region. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal hole may
keep conditions elevated throughout the period. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible on 2 September due to the effects
of the full halo CME from the long duration C2 x-ray event that
occurred today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 01 Sep au 03 Sep
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 31 Aug 084 Prévisionnel 01 Sep-03 Sep 080/080/080 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 31 Aug 094
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 30 Aug 003/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 31 Aug 018/032 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 01 Sep au 03 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 45% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 15% |
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