Affichage des archives de samedi, 25 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 25 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 176 publié à 2200Z le 25 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. A C1
x-ray flare occurred in Region 780 (S07W43) at 25/0346Z. This
region continues to decay as white light depicts a two spot AXX
alpha group. There were several disappearing filaments reported
today near the time SOHO/LASCO imagery depicts a full halo CME.
Much of CME signature is believed to be back-sided, although there
is some evidence that the filament activity contributed to the
overall CME signature leaving the potential for an Earth directed
component. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Showing weak
geoeffective consequences, the recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream has pushed the solar winds speeds to over 600 km/sec. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been
predominantly north throughout the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible on 26 June due to the high speed
stream and again on 28 June due to the potential effects from the
front-sided component of the CME activity seen today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Jun au 28 Jun
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Jun 077 Prévisionnel 26 Jun-28 Jun 080/080/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Jun 007/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Jun 004/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 010/015-010/012-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Jun au 28 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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