Affichage des archives de vendredi, 17 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 17 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 168 publié à 2200Z le 17 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity is expected to be low. Newly numbered
Region 780 (S07E66) produced the only C-class activity of the
period, a C1 flare at 17/1904Z. Active Regions 775 (N10, L=055) and
776 (S05, L=046) have both rotated around the west limb. A post CME
loop system on the west limb persisted through the early part of
this period following yesterday's M4 proton flare from Region 775.
Region 779 (S18W19) continues to slowly grow and is now an E-type
beta-gamma spot group; however, no activity of note occurred.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible from Regions 779 and 780.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The most disturbed
conditions occurred early in the period during intervals of
sustained southward Bz. Solar wind speed decreased from over 650
km/s to under 550 km/s by the end of the period. The elevated solar
wind conditions are due to the combined effects of CME transient
flow and a high speed coronal hole stream. A greater than 100 MeV
proton event began at 16/2125Z following yesterday's M4 flare. The
event ended at 17/0730Z with a peak flux of 2.9 pfu at 16/2315Z. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 16/2200Z, peaked at
17/0500Z at 44 pfu, and ended at 17/1805Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated solar
wind speed is expected to produce occasional active conditions on 18
June. It is unlikely that much of the ejecta associated with
yesterday's M4 flare and CME is Earth directed; however, a glancing
blow may create active to minor storm periods on 19 June. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 20 June. The greater than 10 and
greater than 100 MeV protons are expected to return to background
levels over the next day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Jun au 20 Jun
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Jun 091 Prévisionnel 18 Jun-20 Jun 090/090/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Jun 019/026 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Jun 015/014 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 012/015-015/020-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Jun au 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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