Affichage des archives de mercredi, 15 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 15 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 166 publié à 2200Z le 15 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 776 (S05W64) produced a
C2.2 flare at 1843 UTC. Region 775 (N09W74) continues to show fair
flare potential but will rotate around the west limb on 16 June.
Region 776 will rotate off on 17 June. Two new regions were
numbered today. Newly numbered Region 778 (N07W38) developed into a
Cro beta group. Newly numbered Region 779 (S17E08) emerged and
developed rapidly into a Dai beta spot group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz was sustained
southward between -5 and -10 nT from 15/0500 to 15/1200 UTC. This
resulted in minor storm levels between 15/0600 and 15/0900 UTC.
Conditions have been at unsettled to active levels since 0900 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods on 16 June as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream rotates into a geoeffective position. Isolated minor to
major storming is possible on 17 June due to the effects of CME
activity associated with the C4 and C7 flares on 14 June.
Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active on 18
June
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 Jun au 18 Jun
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 Jun 095 Prévisionnel 16 Jun-18 Jun 095/095/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 012/020-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 Jun au 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 05% |
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