Affichage des archives de mardi, 7 juin 2005

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 158 publié à 2200Z le 07 Jun 2005

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. There were two C-class events. The first was a C3/Sf from Region 772 (S18W44) at 1342 UTC, and the second was a C2.5 from Region 776 (S06E47) at 1914 UTC. Neither of these regions has shown dramatic changes during the past 24 hours. However, Region 776 continues to be the largest group on the disk. There was some new flux emergence and growth in Region 775 (N10E35), but the group didn't produce any flares. A quiescent filament erupted from the northeast part of the disk at about 0900 UTC and was associated with a CME observed by LASCO. The CME is centered over the northeast limb and is about 75 degrees wide: it does not appear to have any earthward directed component.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class event. Regions 772 and 776 are the most likely sources for activity although Region 775 might also contribute if the current growth trend continues.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field component Bz went through an interval between 06/1800-07/0400 UTC with weakly but persistently negative values ranging from 0 nT to -7 nT. This resulted in unsettled to active levels between 06/2100-07/0300 UTC followed by a minor storm interval from 0300-0600 UTC and another active period from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been at quiet to unsettled levels since 0900 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for the first day (08 June). Conditions should be unsettled for the second day (09 June) and are expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled for the third day (10 June).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Jun au 10 Jun
Classe M25%25%25%
Classe X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       07 Jun 109
  Prévisionnel   08 Jun-10 Jun  110/110/105
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        07 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/013
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  015/020
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  010/015-010/010-007/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Jun au 10 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif25%25%20%
Tempête mineure15%15%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif30%30%25%
Tempête mineure20%20%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%

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