Affichage des archives de lundi, 16 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 16 2200 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 136 publié à 2200Z le 16 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 763 (S16E04)
produced three low level M-class flares. The largest of these
flares was a M3.5 at 15/2236 UTC. This region has increased in size
and complexity and now exhibits a beta-gamma magnetic
classification. Beginning at 16/1350 UTC, LASCO imagery showed what
appeared to be a partial halo CME. This event was actually two
events. The first was a DSF near Region 759 (N11W35) at
approximately 16/1243 UTC and the second was a backside event at
approximately 16/1358 UTC. Most of the front side ejection was
directed northward; therefore, the event is not likely to be
geoeffective.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm conditions between 16/0300 UTC and 0600 UTC.
Solar wind speed at ACE has been steadily decreasing from
approximately 800 km/s to 550 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz
component of the IMF has remained south between -1 nT and -10 nT
during this reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm
period possible on 17 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becoming geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 18 and 19 May.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 May au 19 May
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 May 099 Prévisionnel 17 May-19 May 100/100/095 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 May 092
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 May 044/105 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 May 020/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 012/020-008/012-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 May au 19 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 01% | 01% |
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