Affichage des archives de samedi, 23 avril 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Apr 23 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 113 publié à 2200Z le 23 Apr 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
just a couple of very small and simple sunspot groups on the visible
disk. Occasional bright surges were observed on the southeast limb
late in the period. The associated active region is expected to
rotate into view on 24 April. No other activity of note was
observed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating on the east limb near S05 may
slightly elevate activity levels over the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions late in the period. A coronal hole high speed stream has
rotated into a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed gradually
increased to near 600 km/s. The IMF Bz was generally northward, but
occasional brief southward excursions occurred late in the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods on 24
and 25 April. Predominantly quiet levels with isolated unsettled
periods are expected on 26 April as the high speed stream rotates
out of a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Apr 079 Prévisionnel 24 Apr-26 Apr 080/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Apr 090
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Apr 007/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Apr 008/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 010/020-008/010-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Apr au 26 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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