Affichage des archives de lundi, 11 avril 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Apr 11 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 101 publié à 2200Z le 11 Apr 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was low due to a C1 x-ray event at 0253
UTC from Region 751 (S06W90). The remainder of today's activity
consisted of occasional B-class events.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days (12-14 April).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period
until around 1500 UTC, after which conditions became unsettled to
active. Solar wind data show a sector boundary crossing at about
1440 UTC, followed by a gradual increase in solar wind velocity and
enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. This is consistent with
solar observations which indicate the presence of a favorably
positioned coronal hole just a few degrees behind a solar magnetic
polarity inversion line. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active for the next two days (12-13 April) as
the high speed stream from the coronal hole should continue to drive
activity. There is a chance for isolated minor storm periods during
this time as well. Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled
with occasional active periods for the third day (14 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Apr au 14 Apr
| Classe M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 Apr 088 Prévisionnel 12 Apr-14 Apr 085/085/085 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 Apr 096
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 020/025-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Apr au 14 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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