Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 février 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Feb 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 035 publié à 2200Z le 04 Feb 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
04/1509Z from a source on the east limb near N14. This is likely the
return of old Region 720 (N13, L=178), which produced several major
flares during its previous transit across the visible disk. Several
brightenings near the northeast limb suggest this region is still
quite active. A CME at 04/0731Z occurred in association with a
prominence eruption from the northeast limb. The CME does not appear
to be Earth directed. New Region 730 (S20E73) was numbered today and
produced occasional B-class flares.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The probability for M-class activty will increase
following the return of old Region 720 on 05 February.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed began the period at
over 500 km/s, but gradually decreased to near 430 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet with occasional unsettled periods
on 05 and 06 February. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected
to rotate into geoeffective position on 07 February and induce
occasional active periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Feb au 07 Feb
| Classe M | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Feb 082 Prévisionnel 05 Feb-07 Feb 090/100/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Feb 100
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Feb 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-005/005-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Feb au 07 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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