Affichage des archives de dimanche, 16 janvier 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jan 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 016 publié à 2200Z le 16 Jan 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N13W15) produced
several flares throughout the day. The largest was an X2/3B at
15/2302 UTC. This flare was associated with significant radio output
that included 6400 sfu at 2695 MHz and type II/IV radio sweeps.
There was also an asymmetric full halo CME associated with this
event. The region remains large and magnetically complex, showing
little structural changes since this major flare. New Regions 721
(S03E14) and 722 (N19E04) were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high
to very high. Region 720 appears capable of additional major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A proton
event at greater than 10 MeV began at 16/0210 UTC in response to the
X2 flare mentioned in Part IA and remains in progress. Peak flux
observed so far was 312 pfu at 16/1935 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was high.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to increase to major to severe storm levels within the
next several hours with the arrival of the first of at least two
expected CMEs generated over the past few days by Region 720. The
proton event is expected to continue in progress.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Jan au 19 Jan
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 99% | 80% | 75% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Jan 145 Prévisionnel 17 Jan-19 Jan 150/155/160 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Jan 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Jan 011/022 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Jan 015/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 050/060-030/030-030/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Jan au 19 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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