Affichage des archives de vendredi, 3 décembre 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Dec 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 338 publié à 2200Z le 03 Dec 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 708 (N08W12)
produced an M1/2f flare at 03/0006UTC. This flare was associated
with a full-halo CME and significant radio emission that included a
520 sfu burst at 2695 MHz and type II/IV sweeps. The sunspot
configuration has remained relatively unchanged following the flare.
Region 707 (S14W49) was stable. New Region 709 (N06E61) was
numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Occasional C-class flares are possible in Regions 707 and 708.
Another M-class flare may occur in 708.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The proton flux at greater than 10
MeV is enhanced as a result of the M1 flare discussed in Part IA but
has not yet crossed the 10 pfu event threshold. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high. The
Fredericksburg A index reported in Part V is estimated from Boulder
observations.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet until the arrival of the CME associated with
the M1 flare discussed in Part IA. The arrival of the CME is
anticipated late on 04 Dec after which geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be at storm levels. A coronal hole high-speed stream is
also expected to begin to affect geomagnetic activity within the
same time period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux may increase
with the arrival of the CME but is currently not expected to exceed
the event threshold.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 Dec au 06 Dec
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 Dec 101 Prévisionnel 04 Dec-06 Dec 095/095/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 Dec 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 03 Dec 004/004 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/015-035/040-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 Dec au 06 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 25% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 25% | 10% |
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