Affichage des archives de jeudi, 4 novembre 2004

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Nov 04 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 309 publié à 2200Z le 04 Nov 2004

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels today. The largest flare of the period was a long duration C6/Sf that occurred at 04/0905Z from Region 696 (N09E19). There was an associated Tenflare (210 sfu's) and a Type IV spectral radio sweep. A partial halo CME was also seen in SOHO/LASCO imagery shortly following this event which appears to have the potential of becoming geoeffective. There was a doubling of the sunspot area coverage and a magnetic delta structure is now visible in the trailing portion of the spot cluster. Region 693 (S15W31) remains impressive in appearance, although there were no recorded flares and some decay was observed during the day. There remains a weak delta structure in the trailing portion of the sunspot complex. Region 691 (N13W94) produced B and C class flares as this region exited the solar west limb. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 693 and 696 are both capable of producing an isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels today. There was one active period at high latitudes occurring between 03/2100 and 2400Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled on 05 November. On 06 November the field is expected to see minor to major storming conditions due to the effects of the M5/Sn event that occurred yesterday producing a full halo CME from Region 696. A partial halo CME resulting from the long duration C6/Sf flare that occurred at 04/0905Z is expected to produce minor storming conditions late on the sixth, or early on 7 November.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
Classe M60%60%60%
Classe X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       04 Nov 136
  Prévisionnel   05 Nov-07 Nov  135/140/140
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        04 Nov 109
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 03 Nov  007/010
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 04 Nov  008/010
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  012/015-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Nov au 07 Nov
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif25%40%40%
Tempête mineure15%35%25%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%20%15%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif30%30%35%
Tempête mineure15%45%40%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%20%15%

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