Affichage des archives de jeudi, 12 août 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Aug 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 225 publié à 2200Z le 12 Aug 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 656 (S13W09)
produced one M-class flare during the past 24 hours, an M1/1f at
0505UTC. The remainder of the day's activity consisted of occasional
C-class flares from Region 656. This region continues to grow and
has an area of about 1320 millionths. It also continues to be
magnetically complex and is classified as a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration. Old Region 652 quietly rotated around the
east limb and was assigned as Region 661 (N08E84).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, and Region 656 is expected to dominate activity. There is
a chance during the next three days for an isolated major flare
event from Region 656.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind data shows
the continuing presence of a high speed coronal hole stream, but the
influence on geomagnetic activity is weakening as the velocity is
declining. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for tomorrow (13 August). Conditions
are expected to increase slightly to unsettled to active on the 2nd
day (14 August) with the arrival of a slow CME that was observed
late on 10 August. Conditions should return to mostly unsettled for
the third day (15 August).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Aug au 15 Aug
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Aug 147 Prévisionnel 13 Aug-15 Aug 150/155/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Aug 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Aug 010/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 010/010-015/012-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Aug au 15 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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