Affichage des archives de lundi, 26 avril 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Apr 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 117 publié à 2200Z le 26 Apr 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. There was only one C-class
event during the past 24 hours, a C2/Sf from Region 599 (N16E15) at
0242 UTC. Although this region emerged rapidly yesterday, the past
24 hours have see a noticeable decrease in spot area, flare
production, and overall brightness of the region. New Region 600
(N18W06) emerged on the disk today as a small beta-type sunspot
group.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Mostly quiet conditions
prevailed early in the day as solar wind signatures showed a gradual
declining trend in solar wind velocity with very weak interplanetary
magnetic field, up until around 1520 UTC. Beginning around 1520 UTC
a compression wave followed by some transient flow was observed:
density, velocity, temperature and magnetic field all increased over
a few minutes, and Bz showed a rotation over 2-3 hours from +5 to
around -7 nT. The geomagnetic field responded by an increase to
unsettled levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next 24 hours (27
April). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail for the
second and third days (28-29 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Apr au 29 Apr
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Apr 100 Prévisionnel 27 Apr-29 Apr 100/095/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Apr 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Apr 007/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Apr 007/007 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr 010/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Apr au 29 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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