Affichage des archives de lundi, 29 mars 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Mar 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 089 publié à 2200Z le 29 Mar 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 582 (N14E18) produced
several C-class flares today. The largest was a C5/Sf at 1551 UTC.
The region dominates the solar disk in size and complexity and
became more active during the past 24 hours. The region appears to
be growing slowly. The only other region producing flares was 587
(S12E63) which managed to produce two B-class events. All the other
regions on the disk were quiet and stable. A CME was observed by
LASCO off the southwest limb around 0040 UTC, but the lack of
corresponding disk signatures suggests that the source was on the
back side.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a chance, however, for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 582 during the next three days (30 March - 1
April).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, although there
was one active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show a
declining high speed stream with velocities slowly decreasing over
the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field shows weak
fluctuations in Bz, ranging from -3 nT to +3 nT. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux was high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a slight chance for an active period
during the next 24 hours (30 March). Conditions should decline to
quiet to unsettled for the second and third days (31 March - 1
April) as the solar wind returns to nominal conditions.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Mar au 01 Apr
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Mar 129 Prévisionnel 30 Mar-01 Apr 130/130/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Mar 111
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Mar 012/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Mar 012/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr 012/012-010/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Mar au 01 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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