Affichage des archives de mercredi, 3 mars 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Mar 03 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 063 publié à 2200Z le 03 Mar 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 567 (S12W16) produced
two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 02/2149 UTC and
a C1 at 02/2327 UTC. A CME was observed from the southeast limb,
beginning at 02/2354 UTC, but was not earthward directed and was
probably from a backside source. Region 567 is showing slow growth
and may be building up some weak shear along its backward S-shaped
polarity inversion line. The remainder of the disk was quiet and
stable.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to low for
the next three days (04-06 March). Region 567 is expected to produce
additional C-class level activity. There is a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 02-2100Z au 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was an
interval of active to minor storm levels between 0900-1500 UTC. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were high during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with some isolated active periods for 04
March. Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 05 March and quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for 06 March. The decrease in
activity is expected from the slow decline of the high speed solar
wind stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 04 Mar au 06 Mar
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 03 Mar 090 Prévisionnel 04 Mar-06 Mar 095/095/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 03 Mar 111
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 02 Mar 014/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 03 Mar 012/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 04 Mar au 06 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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