Affichage des archives de dimanche, 25 janvier 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jan 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 025 publié à 2200Z le 25 Jan 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were only two,
low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region
540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder
of the solar disk was stable and quiet.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT
started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The
magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining
temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The
geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions
beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC.
Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC
through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Jan au 28 Jan
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Jan 102 Prévisionnel 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Jan 132
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/015 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Jan 020/033 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Jan au 28 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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