Affichage des archives de jeudi, 8 janvier 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jan 08 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 008 publié à 2200Z le 08 Jan 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M1/1n flare at
0507 UTC from Region 537 (N04E50). The group produced additional
small flares throughout the day. Analysis of the region indicates a
small, relatively compact group of spots with an inversion line
running northeast to southwest and cutting through penumbra, making
this a delta class group. Region 536 (S10W16) continues to be the
largest group and also has a delta configuration. The region
produced a few small flares during the past 24 hours and is slowly
decaying. A CME was reported by LASCO over the south solar pole,
beginning at 1654 UTC on the 7th, and associated with subsequent
relatively faint, large scale post-eruption loop system (visible in
EIT 195) just to the west and south of Region 536.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for 09-11 January with Regions 536 and 537 being the most
likely source for activity. There continues to be a slight chance
for a major flare or proton producing flare from either of these
regions during the 09-11 January forecast period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 07-2100Z au 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. ACE solar wind showed a
steady decline of solar wind velocity and Bz was mostly weak during
the past 24 hours. The solar wind appears to be transitioning to
nominal conditions, probably indicating the end of the recent high
speed stream at ACE. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were
high during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled for 09-11 January with a slight
chance for isolated active periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 09 Jan au 11 Jan
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 08 Jan 120 Prévisionnel 09 Jan-11 Jan 120/120/125 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 08 Jan 137
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 07 Jan 016/032 Estimé Afr/Ap 08 Jan 010/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 09 Jan au 11 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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