Affichage des archives de jeudi, 1 janvier 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jan 01 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 001 publié à 2200Z le 01 Jan 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 536 (S11E73) has been very active as it rotates around the
east limb. A long duration C8 flare was observed form this region
at 31/2217Z along with numerous minor C-class flares. Currently,
Region 536 is at 380 millionths area coverage but due to limb
proximity, it is unclear as to the extent of its magnetic
complexity. Region 534 (S06E28) has exhibited significant growth
over the past twenty-fours hour increasing to 90 millionths in area
coverage while maintaining its beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Regions 534 and 536 are expected to produce C-class flares. There
is a slight chance that they may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 31-2100Z au 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole high speed stream continues to produce isolated minor
storm levels and has kept solar wind speeds elevated near 580 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been, on
average, slightly southward.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. High speed stream
effects are expected to produce unsettled to active conditions early
on 02 January, then diminish by the end of the day. Quiet to
unsettled levels expected on 03 January. A larger transequatorial
coronal hole is expected on 04 January with active to isolated major
storm levels possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 02 Jan au 04 Jan
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 01 Jan 116 Prévisionnel 02 Jan-04 Jan 120/120/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 01 Jan 135
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/017 Estimé Afr/Ap 01 Jan 025/032 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 015/020-010/015-025/035
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 02 Jan au 04 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 25% |
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