Affichage des archives de vendredi, 28 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 332 publié à 2200Z le 28 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Flare
production was limited to C-class activity throughout the period.
Region 508 (S19W44) produced the largest flare of the day, a C3
x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0913Z. This region underwent a
slight growth in magnetic complexity and areal coverage in the spot
group over the past 24 hours. Region 507 (N07W56) produced a
single event, a C1 x-ray flare that occurred at 28/0555Z. No
significant changes were observed in this group during the period.
Region 510 (S23E11) produced a C1 x-ray flare at 27/2210Z. This
region has nearly doubled in penumbral coverage since yesterday
while the magnetic field appears to remain a simply structured
complex. Regions 515 (S02E68) and 516 (S17E70) were newly numbered
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible throughout the period, mainly at
higher latitudes. A transequatorial coronal hole is expected to
become geoeffective by 30 Nov, enhancing the potential for isolated
active periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Nov au 01 Dec
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Nov 168 Prévisionnel 29 Nov-01 Dec 170/165/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Nov 135
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/010 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Nov 004/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 004/015-008/015-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Nov au 01 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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