Affichage des archives de jeudi, 6 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 310 publié à 2200Z le 06 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. After nearly
three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the
sun is almost spotless. Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group
visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday. A long
duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT
imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 05-2100Z au 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The shock
from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z. A 31nT
sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity
reached minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially
turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels
at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are
expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on day one.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 07 Nov au 09 Nov
| Classe M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 06 Nov 098 Prévisionnel 07 Nov-09 Nov 095/090/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 06 Nov 131
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 07 Nov au 09 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 10% |
Dernières nouvelles
lundi, 22 avril 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
Forum
AR3654 25Unspecified geomagnetic activity 954Unproven theories 342Changelog/Featurelog 154What are these long and thin eruptions? 9
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 27/04/2024 | M3.0 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 26/04/2024 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |
| Last 30 days | 137.7 +30.3 |