Affichage des archives de samedi, 9 août 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Aug 09 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 221 publié à 2200Z le 09 Aug 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 424 (S18W28)
maintains moderate size and complexity, but activity this period was
limited to occasional intensity fluctuations in the plage field. New
Region 431 (S12E68) was numbered today. This new region is likely
the return of old Region 410 which produced multiple C-class flares
during its last transit across the visible disk. A considerable
degree of surging was observed, but limb proximity is still making
it too difficult to assess this region's true complexity. Nothing
remarkable in the remaining active regions.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 424 and 431 both have potential for C-class
activity. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 08-2100Z au 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The high speed solar
wind stream is subsiding as the large equatorial coronal hole
rotates out of a geoeffective position. Wind speed began the period
near 750 km/s, but has gradually declined to near 650 km/s. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Predominantly
quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active periods are
expected on days one and two as the current high speed solar wind
stream continues to weaken. Another recurrent equatorial coronal
hole will move into a geoeffective position by day three and produce
occasional minor to major storm periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 10 Aug au 12 Aug
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 09 Aug 130 Prévisionnel 10 Aug-12 Aug 135/135/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 09 Aug 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 08 Aug 022/032 Estimé Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/016 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 015/015-015/020-025/035
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 10 Aug au 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 45% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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