Affichage des archives de samedi, 17 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 17 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 137 publié à 2200Z le 17 May 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled on day one, with active conditions possible
on days two and three of the period due to a coronal hole passing
into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 May au 20 May
Classe M | 05% | 05% | 10% |
Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 May 102
Prévisionnel 18 May-20 May 110/120/125
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 May 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 May 009/009
Estimé Afr/Ap 17 May 010/012
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 010/012-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 May au 20 May
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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