Affichage des archives de vendredi, 16 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 136 publié à 2200Z le 16 May 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due
to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. Solar
wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole
rotates across the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with
active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a
coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 May au 19 May
Classe M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 May 103
Prévisionnel 17 May-19 May 110/115/120
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 May 124
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 May 019/023
Estimé Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 May au 19 May
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
<< Aller à l'aperçu quotidien