Affichage des archives de mercredi, 14 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 14 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 134 publié à 2200Z le 14 May 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 360 (at S04 W19)
was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar actvity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 24 hours. Two new active regions on the
east limb (returning Regions 336 at latitude N13 and 337 at S12) may
become the source of isolated C-class flares in the following days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels due
to high speed solar wind streams from a favorably positioned coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day,
falling off to unsettled to active on days two and three. The
coronal hole causing high speed solar wind streams is rotating out
of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 May au 17 May
Classe M | 10% | 10% | 15% |
Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 May 096
Prévisionnel 15 May-17 May 105/110/115
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 May 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 May 024/027
Estimé Afr/Ap 14 May 025/025
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 020/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 May au 17 May
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 35% | 25% | 25% |
Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
VII. Comments
The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 will once again become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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