Affichage des archives de jeudi, 17 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 107 publié à 2200Z le 17 Apr 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There was a single
minor B-class event during the past 24 hours. A new Region 336
(N12E75) was numbered today. All spotted regions on the disk
continue to be small, quiet, and stable. There has been a slow
increase in background levels due to the arrival of the new region.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The background levels are likely to continue to increase
slightly with the addition of regions which are now visible in GOES
Solar x-ray imagery behind East limb at N20 and S25.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active during the past
24 hours with a minor storm period from 0300-0900 UTC in the mid
latitudes, and a minor storm period at high latitudes from both
0300-1200 UTC and 1500-1800 UTC. The coronal-hole induced high speed
solar wind flow continues. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active but decreasing to unsettled within the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance transitions out of
geoeffective range. Continued unsettled levels are expected for days
two and three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Apr au 20 Apr
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Apr 101 Prévisionnel 18 Apr-20 Apr 100/100/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Apr 127
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Apr 013/031 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Apr 029/033 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Apr au 20 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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