Affichage des archives de mardi, 18 février 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 049 publié à 2200Z le 18 Feb 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 289
(N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC. The most significant
event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar
filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58.
Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not
appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 288 (N12E32) has
remained relatively stable. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17
February. The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed
to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the
source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder
magnetometer. At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very
structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual
decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 Feb au 21 Feb
| Classe M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 18 Feb 110 Prévisionnel 19 Feb-21 Feb 110/110/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 18 Feb 146
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 18 Feb 018/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 Feb au 21 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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