Affichage des archives de dimanche, 2 février 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Feb 02 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 033 publié à 2200Z le 02 Feb 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 276 (S14E66) produced
numerous C-flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was
a C2/Sf at 0334 UTC. The region appears to be an E-type sunspot
group with an area of about 240 millionths. Region 274 (S06E05)
showed some growth during the past 24 hours, and displayed
occasional brightenings but did not produce any flare level
activity. The remaining solar active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC.
The enhanced solar wind flow which was reported yesterday continued
during the past 24 hours, with speeds in the 500 to 700 km/s range
and total magnetic field around 10 to 12 nT. Occasional periods of
southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field were
associated with times of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active during the next 24 hours,
but there will probably be some periods of minor storm levels as the
current disturbance persists partway into the first day. A decrease
to mostly unsettled is expected for the second day. An increase to
unsettled to active is anticipated on the third day in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 03 Feb au 05 Feb
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 02 Feb 127 Prévisionnel 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/135/140 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 02 Feb 155
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/050 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/030-010/015-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 03 Feb au 05 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 10% |
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