Affichage des archives de samedi, 28 décembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Dec 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 362 publié à 2200Z le 28 Dec 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The now spotless Region
235 (N13W08) produced a subfaint flare early in the period, but has
been quiet since. Occasional intensity enhancements accompanied a
small increase in the size and complexity of Region 236 (N16W41).
New Regions 237 (S26E00) and 238 (N09E15) were numbered today. The
remaining regions are small, showing no significant changes this
period. There are several large, but mostly quiescent filaments on
the visible disk. Occasional motion was noted in the large filament
centered near N22W12. A long duration, but low intensity X-ray
enhancement was observed beginning at around 28/1700Z. This was
likely associated with a strong CME that appears to have originated
behind the NW limb.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to very low. There's a chance for low C-class activity from Regions
234 (N19E19) and 236.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active at all
latitudes. A high speed stream, associated with a large equatorial
coronal hole, began late on 26 Dec and continues to buffet the
magnetic field. The peak solar wind in this high speed stream
exceeded 750 km/s, but has declined slowly to near 650 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The high speed coronal hole
stream currently impacting the geomagnetic field will gradually
subside through day one. Ejecta from the CME off the NW limb late in
the period today does not appear Earthbound. Expect mostly unsettled
levels through days two and three of the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Dec au 31 Dec
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Dec 117 Prévisionnel 29 Dec-31 Dec 115/115/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Dec 166
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Dec 022/037 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Dec 020/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Dec au 31 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 60% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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