Affichage des archives de jeudi, 5 décembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Dec 05 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 339 publié à 2200Z le 05 Dec 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period. Region 213 (N14E50) produced an impulsive
M2/2n event, with associated tenflare and Type II/IV radio sweeps,
at 04/2249 UTC. The region appears to be a relatively small sunspot
group with minor magnetic complexity, near the somewhat larger
Region 212 (N12E35) which remained quiescent during the period.
Single C- and B-class x-ray enhancements were also observed without
optical correlation later in the period, but otherwise the x-ray
emissions from the sun have remained relatively flat. Two new
regions were numbered today: 214 (N12W27) and 215 (S18E74). The
latter appears to be a return of old Region 191 (S18, L=203) but
limb proximity prevents detailed analysis.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with an increasing trend in chances for isolated
moderate flare activity over the course of the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were observed
to briefly exceed threshold for high values around the time of local
satellite noon.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two of the forecast
period, with a trend toward more active conditions by day three, due
to expected coronal hole effects. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below the high value
threshold for the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 Dec au 08 Dec
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 Dec 149 Prévisionnel 06 Dec-08 Dec 160/170/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 Dec 169
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 04 Dec 007/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 05 Dec 009/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/012-012/015-018/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 Dec au 08 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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