Affichage des archives de vendredi, 29 novembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Nov 29 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 333 publié à 2200Z le 29 Nov 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Only
two C-class flares were observed, both from Region 207 (S19E44). The
largest was a C3 at 28/2244 UTC. Region 207 is the largest region on
the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration. New
Region 208 (N10E74) rotated into view today as a simple D-type
group. A CME was observed to erupt off the south pole at 0054 UTC,
but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that this was
a back-sided event.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low during the next three days. There is a chance, however,
for an isolated M-class event, with Region 207 the most likely
source region.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 28-2100Z au 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with a few
active periods. Solar wind velocity remains enhanced and the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to have significant
intervals of weakly southward orientation. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated storm intervals. The increase is predicted
because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 30 Nov au 02 Dec
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 29 Nov 141 Prévisionnel 30 Nov-02 Dec 140/145/155 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 29 Nov 171
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 28 Nov 010/015 Estimé Afr/Ap 29 Nov 010/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 015/015-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 30 Nov au 02 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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