Affichage des archives de mercredi, 13 novembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Nov 13 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 317 publié à 2200Z le 13 Nov 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z Solar activity fell to low levels for the period. The
largest event was a long duration C3.2 x-ray enhancement, observed
during 13/0341-0552 UTC without a correlated optical report. Some
episodes of lesser C-class flare activity were produced by Region
191 (S18E12) later in the period. This region has continued to
exhibit a trend of increasing size and spot count and moderate
magnetic complexity. Region 180 (S11W94) produced some bright loops
visible in H-alpha early in the period, but was mostly quiescent as
it transited the west limb today. New Regions 194 (S16E43) and 195
(S15E78) were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Region 191 appears to be a
likely source of M-class activity for the forecast period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled, with some isolated
quiet and active periods.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly unsettled through day one of the forecast
period. A trend toward more active conditions, with isolated minor
storm conditions possible, is expected by day three of the forecast
period due to the anticipated onset of coronal hole high speed
stream effects.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 14 Nov au 16 Nov
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 13 Nov 182 Prévisionnel 14 Nov-16 Nov 175/175/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 13 Nov 178
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 13 Nov 011/012 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 010/012-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 14 Nov au 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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