Affichage des archives de vendredi, 25 octobre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Oct 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 298 publié à 2200Z le 25 Oct 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
162 (N26W18) produced a long duration M1.5/1f event at 25/1747 UTC
along with multiple C-class flares today. The M1.5/1f flare
produced an associated Type II (estimated shock velocity of 389
km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery was
insufficient at the time of this writing to determine whether an
earth-directed CME accompanied this flare. This region retains a
small delta magnetic structure that has underwent slight decay since
yesterday. A disappearing solar filament (approximately 67
heliographic degrees) was seen to dissipate around 25/0600 UTC in
the southeast quadrant of the disk. Two separate H-class spot
groups were newly assigned today, Regions 170 (S12E65) and 171
(N10E76).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels due to the magnetic complexity of Region 162.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. The
large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere continues to
elevate the high speed solar wind (approximate average speed of 700
km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The coronal hole
high speed stream effects should persist through day one and into
day two of the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions by day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Oct au 28 Oct
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Oct 173 Prévisionnel 26 Oct-28 Oct 170/170/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Oct 179
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Oct 022/047 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Oct 035/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 025/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Oct au 28 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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