Affichage des archives de samedi, 15 juin 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 166 publié à 2200Z le 15 Jun 2002
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. The largest event was an
optically uncorrelated C1.7 flare at 15/0058 UTC. Lesser C- and
B-class flare activity occurred in Region 0000 (N18E36), Region 1
(N20E38), and newly numbered Region 3 (N00E63). Region 9997
(N12E31) was combined with former Region 9998 to produce a single
beta-class group of penless spots. Other regions that emerged on
the disk and were numbered today included Region 2 (S24W08) and
Region 4 (S16E10).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. A small chance for an isolated moderate flare
exists for the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet. One isolated unsettled
period was observed at higher latitudes near the end of the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 Jun au 18 Jun
Classe M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 Jun 135
Prévisionnel 16 Jun-18 Jun 140/145/145
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 Jun 178
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 Jun 004/007
Estimé Afr/Ap 15 Jun 003/006
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 008/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 Jun au 18 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 15% | 10% | 10% |
Tempête mineure | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 20% | 15% | 15% |
Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PLAIN
This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space
Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you
may have noticed, we are steadily approaching
region number 10000. The plan for Space Weather
operations is to go through the sequence of Region
numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's
product text discussions of the active regions
will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we
will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region
number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the
Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS
data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format.
The necessity of using four digits is for operational
purposes only. For historical purposes all regions
beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a
series of regions numbers 10000 and higher.
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